Probability of Ellie Foster pregnant from one or more eggs of Remuses

Briefing to the Board of IVF Inc.

Peter Taylor (pjt), 24 Feb. '03

Assumptions
• exact number of Foster eggs inserted is unknown, but “several” is most likely to be 3 or 4
• probability of inserted egg implanting = 0.3
• this is independent of total #s inserted or of egg source
• if Ellie Foster is pregnant with one or more eggs, couples will want to know the probability of one or more of these being from the Remuses


|| total # of fetuses gestating in Ellie Foster = || 1 || 2 || 3 || 4 || 5||
|| # Remus fetuses (below) ||
|| 0 || 0.49 || 0.22 || 0.09 || 0.03 || 0.01||
|| 1 || 0.51 || 0.58 || 0.46 || 0.30 || 0.16||
|| 2 || || 0.20 || 0.40 || 0.52 || 0.53||
|| 3 || || || 0.05 || 0.15 || 0.30||

This chart is produced by a spreadsheet available on disk. The first two assumptions can be varied to see the resulting probabilities.